Transcript Staff

Heather Hollen, a freshman in the Department of Geography at the University of Oklahoma, has been preparing a project to be presented at the 104th annual meeting of the Association of American Geographers in Boston April 15-19.

Hollen's project, which she began in September, explores the effects disasters have on political elections, focusing on four disasters in the project: Hurricane Katrina, the 2003 European heat wave, the 2004 Sumatran Tsunami and the recent fires in California.?

In her research, Hollen considered if the disaster was expected, what efforts there were to prevent the disaster, the after-effects of the disaster, how concentrated the media was on the event, how stable the government was before and after the disaster and the timing of the following elections.

Along with Fred Shelley, chair of the Geography Department, Hollen has created a conceptual framework for predicting what aspects of a disaster affect election votes and outcomes the most.

First, high-visibility disasters are likely to result in electoral change, especially if the government's response to the disaster is perceived as poor or ineffective. Poor government response to disasters that are predictable and expected also is likely to promote a change in voting.? In addition, electoral change is more likely to occur if the election occurs soon after the disaster, rather than several years later. And finally, the more stable the government is before a disaster, the less likely a change in voting will occur after that disaster.

She has examined post-disaster election results in Louisiana, India and France, finding that these results are consistent with her predictions.

"This project is an excellent illustration of how geographic research bridges the gap between the natural environment and society," Shelley said. "Heather's work is truly outstanding. Her conceptual thinking and analytical contributions to this project are at an intellectual level normally associated with graduate students."

Hollen plans to complete a research a paper on her discoveries and submit it for publication. She also plans to continue in her studies of geography with many more research opportunities to come.