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January 24, 2013

2012 scorecard review: Some hits, some misses

(Continued)

NORMAN —

3. “Interest rates on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond decline to historic lows of 1.5 percent on the next risk-off event and then head slightly higher by year end.” Mostly true. Rates went as low as 1.3 percent and finished the year at 1.9 percent.

4. “The U.S. dollar continues up and the euro down, with the euro going as low as $1.19 exchange rate. Gold rises at first to $1,750 and then falls into summer. Wait to buy gold at $1,250.” Pretty close on the euro but partly missed on gold. The euro went as low as $1.20 and then recovered to $1.32 by year end. Gold traded between $1,801 and $1,538, closing around $1,650.

5. “Oil and commodity prices peak sometime this year and start to decline by late in the year, if not sooner, as the global economy slows and demand falls. Oil is at $100 now and could see a spike to $120 at some point. However, the next risk-off trade or a slowing global economy could take it down to $75 by year end.” In between. Oil traded between $109 in March to a low of $80 in June, closing around $95 at year end.

6. “The U.S. government runs another $1.3 trillion deficit.” True.

So how did I do? I guess I would give myself a B minus on this one.

Next up, I’ll stick my neck out once again with my predictions for 2013. Maybe I should just heed the words of Mark Twain when he said, “It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for certain that just ain’t true.” Maybe I should, but I just can’t help myself.

Nick Massey is a financial columnist for The Edmond Sun.

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