The Norman Transcript

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July 18, 2013

Cartel leader’s capture will have little effect

MEXICO CITY — The capture of the top leader of Mexico’s most bloodthirsty and bloodcurdling drug cartel will have surprisingly little effect on trafficking of cocaine and other illicit substances to the U.S., and on the violence that has claimed tens of thousands of lives here in recent years.

If anything, the violence, at least in the short term, may surge as rivals and potential successors of Miguel Angel Trevino Morales, alias Z-40, head of the Zetas paramilitary gang, battle to take his place or his turf.

But for President Enrique Pena Nieto, the capture is a small coup. The 7-month-old government, marking its first major strike against organized crime, probably hopes the early-Monday arrest near the border town of Nuevo Laredo will score points in the theater of public opinion and especially among skeptics who doubt the new leader’s vague and sporadic security policy.

The elimination of Trevino “will seriously complicate ... the ability of these groups ... to exercise their criminal activities,” the government’s security affairs spokesman, Eduardo Sanchez, said Tuesday in a television interview. His remarks reflected Pena Nieto’s insistence on downplaying the drug war.

In marked contrast to his predecessor, President Felipe Calderon, whose military-led, U.S.-backed war on powerful cartels claimed more than 70,000 lives in six years, decapitated many organizations, but ultimately did not make a significant dent in trafficking, Pena Nieto has told American advisors to stand down and, to his public, has instead emphasized a more mundane fight against killings, kidnapping and extortion.

Pena Nieto, speaking at an event in San Luis Potosi, took the unusual step of thanking state authorities along with the navy. In most states, certainly in Tamaulipas, where Trevino was captured, local authorities are so corrupt that federal drug interdictions take place without their knowledge.

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