"There is a difference between the change that is needed," he said. "And the change that is likely."

Obama, he said, called for an increase in the size of the country's armed forces and probably won't completely remove soldiers from the Middle East.

"I don't think he can fund his domestic programs and increase the military budget," Ellsberg said.

"Obama, like Hillary, did not promise he would remove all our forces from the Middle East," he said. "But he did, unlike Hillary, call for a timetable and about 'residual function."

He said he believed it was "virtually impossible" that any president -- Democrat or Republican -- would give up American bases in the Middle East. "They could be there for as long as Cheney talked about -- 50 to 100 years," he said.

Ellsberg also predicted that American forces would remain in the Middle East.

"If, indeed, Americans are out in the next two, four or six years, then something will have happened that I didn't perceive," he said. "I think it's close to impossible to give up those bases."

He said he didn't believe the war with Iraq would end like the Vietnam war.

"I think that's almost close to impossible, to give up our military bases there. I don't think it's going to happen the way it did happen in Vietnam after 10 years, it's going to be a very hard thing. And, personally, I don't believe that President Obama will end the war."

Questioning Obama's choice of Rahm Emanuel as White House Chief of Staff, Ellsberg also said he didn't think the Obama administration would pressure Israel to accept a true, two-state policy.

"I don't think there will be the pressure to do that policy," he said.

And while Ellsberg said he didn't want to discourage those who had supported the country's first black president, he added the felt Obama was "a far better choice than John McCain."

He also said he would, like before, continue to fight for an end to the war.

"Just remember it all depends on you," he said. "And know that I will be there with you."

M. Scott Carter 366-3545 scarter@normantranscript.com