A new study shows the University North Park Tax Increment Financing District No. 2 is outpacing revenue projections done before its approval in May 2006.

The "Retail Sales Cannibalization Study," done by Eric S. Lander of Canyon Research Southwest Inc. of Buffalo, N.Y., was distributed to Norman city councilmembers after their Tuesday study session.

Lander was scheduled to be in Norman to discuss the study at the Finance Committee meeting Thursday, but was prevented from flying in by heavy fog in the area.

Methodologies used in the study included:

· Comparison of City sales tax revenues before and after activation of the University North Park TIF Project Plan

· Quantifying Norman's retail pull factor

· Providing retail sales opportunity gap analysis for Norman

· Estimating supportable retail sales in Norman

Lander wrote in the study that new retailers in the 465-acre University North Park project area "haven't cannibalized existing retail sales in Norman. In fact, the contrary is true. The new retailers have served to diversify and strengthen Norman's retail base, improving the city's retail drawing power, creating improved synergy among similar retail categories and generating increased retail sales."

In the study "Estimated Tax Revenue for University North Park" prepared by Dr. Alexander Holmes in February 2006, Holmes projected that in the first three years of the TIF, it would produce revenues of $1,635,781. To date, it has produced revenues of $2,587,423.

Norman has had 4.4 million square feet of new retail space built between 2000 and 2007, with taxable retail sales increasing during that time by 44 percent to $1.45 billion for 2007. UNP accounts for 401,345 square feet of retail space. There has been 2.25 million square feet of retail space built since 2003, when Norman's population topped 100,000 and became more attractive for national retailers.

And Lander indicates even with the new retail space, Norman is operating at an occupancy rate of 95.57 percent.

The first phase of the University Town Center is anchored by a Super Target that opened in October 2006, with Kohl's, TJ Maxx and Office Depot. Prospective anchors listed by Lander include Macy's, Marshalls and Dick's Sporting Goods.

Some of the other potential lifestyle tenants could include specialty retailers like Book-A-Million, Pottery Barn, Restoration Hardware and Willams-Sonoma. Apparel store prospects include Ann Taylor, Banana Republic, Bebe and Brooks Brothers.

The study indicates that sales tax revenue excluding that from UNP has grown at a faster pace than prior to the inception of the UNP TIF.