Recovery signals mixed as job losses persist

July 03, 2009 01:14 am

— The Midwest economy has often been among the nation's last region to feel the impact of an overall slowdown. It's also one of the last to show signs of recovery. So the signal sent out by the Creighton Economic Forecasting Group, overseen by an economics professor, is a mixed one.
The survey, formerly known as the Purchasing Management Association, says Oklahoma's index improved significantly between May and June. The index ranges from 0 to 100 and a number more than 50 indicates conditions are good for an expanding economy over the next three to six months.
Oklahoma scored a regional high of 53.6, up from May's 47.3. It's the first time since last December that the state's index expanded above growth neutral. That should be reason to celebrate but job losses persist.
The region's overall score was 49.3, up from 46.6 in May of this year. Nearby states showed lower numbers. Arkansas had a 41, Kansas 29.7, Nebraska 45.7.
The Creighton University professor who oversees the study said readings over the past several months indicate that the regional economy has bottomed out. An annualized job loss of four percent keeps the enthusiasm down.
"The region is now matching the nation in the pace of job losses," said Creighton University professor Ernie Goss. "The nine-state region is losing jobs at an annualized rate of roughly 4 percent. Even as regional economic activity picks up in the second half of 2009, the rate of job losses will continue with rising unemployment rates for most states in the region."